Europe Inflation Accelerates to Fastest in 11 Months

European inflation accelerated in January to the fastest in almost a year after cold weather pushed oil prices to a 15-month high.

Consumer prices in the 16-nation euro region rose 1 percent from a year earlier after increasing 0.9 percent in December, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since February 2009. The region’s unemployment rate rose to 10 percent in December from a revised 9.9 percent in the previous month, it said in a separate report.

Crude-oil prices have surged 76 percent over the past year, pushing up inflation even as companies cut costs and eliminate jobs to shore up earnings. While the euro-region economy emerged from a recession in the third quarter, the European Central Bank earlier this month kept borrowing costs at a record low and forecast an “uneven” recovery this year.

“We see little prospect of a strong, sustained rise in euro-area inflation,” said Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Securities in London. That “gives the ECB scope to leave monetary policy firmly in accommodative mode.”

An Arctic cold spell gripped the Northern Hemisphere earlier this month, sending energy commodity prices soaring. Northwest Europe may be colder than average in the next two months, forecaster WSI Corp. said on Jan. 20.

Job Cuts

The euro was little changed against the dollar, at $1.3963 as of 10:08 a.m. in London from $1.3971 yesterday.

Economists had forecast that inflation would accelerate to 1.2 percent in January, according to the median of 41 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate is at the highest since August 1998. The statistics office previously reported November unemployment at 10 percent.

Rising unemployment may restrain domestic demand and keep price pressures in check. The euro-area’s core inflation rate, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, was at 1.1 percent in December. The statistics office will publish the January number when it releases detailed data on Feb. 26.

“Underlying inflationary pressures still appear to be muted,” said Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight in London. “Businesses may well remain cautious in their employment and investment plans for some time.”

Growth Forecast

Remy Cointreau SA, France’s second-largest liquor maker based in Paris, said on Jan. 21 that third-quarter revenue dropped on declining demand. Airbus SAS, a unit of European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co., said earlier this month that it plans to cut about 1,000 temporary jobs to help cut costs.

The ECB said last month that the euro-region economy will probably grow around 0.8 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2011. Inflation may average about 1.3 percent in 2010 and around 1.4 percent in 2011. The central bank aims to keep annual gains in consumer prices just below 2 percent.

A gauge of consumers’ price expectations over the next 12 months jumped to minus 2 in January from minus 6 in December, the highest since April, the European Commission said yesterday.

“The economy took a really steep fall, it’s been stabilizing,” ECB council member Axel Weber said on Jan. 27. “We don’t expect” inflation “to significantly surpass 2 percent. Rates are appropriate at this point.”

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